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  • Abiye Alamina

Defying Inflation: When Does an Expansion Become Overheating?


The Unemployment rate for May just dropped to a historically low 3.8%, its lowest since 1969! This is great news, or is it?


US Unemployment Rate (Source: BLS)

The business cycle phenomenon is an interesting short run economic proposition that posits that modern economies go through bouts of growth and stagnation explainable by alternative theories. Real GDP grows positively over some time period hits a peak in economic activity and then starts to experience negative growth, hits a trough, and repeats.

What is fascinating though is not so much what happens in the stagnation phase, as we understand for the most part that this is where a recession happens and lots of jobs are lost and nobody likes that, but rather why or how the assumedly desirable growth phase could be accompanied by an undesirable economic malady.

The issue here for the most part is inflation. A situation where there is a general and sustained increase in prices of both goods and resources, such as leads to inefficient resource allocation and economic hardship for some.

To be sure, we might experience inflation in the stagnation phase, where we have another economic problem aptly called stagflation, but inflation is by and large the problem that shows up in the growth phase.

The growth phase, often referred to as an economic boom or expansion is the desired phase that economies want to be in, at all times if possible. So how does this phase get entangled in this inflation problem which we would like to avoid?

The Inflation Problem

During an economic boom spending levels are very high, driven perhaps by increased optimism by businesses and consumers the boom continues to get reinforced. However spending by itself cannot generate more products beyond what an economy is capable of producing given the limits, over any period of time, on its resources and the state of knowledge on how these get transformed into productive goods and services.

This is how inflation enters the picture: businesses respond to the continued increased spending by looking for ways to raise the productivity of their existing resources, being unable to find dormant resources elsewhere. This scarcity causes resource prices (including wages) to go up as higher payments have to be offered to bid workers and other resources away from their jobs to other jobs. The higher costs associated with production then lead to higher prices, hence we have price inflation.

Economic Growth as a Moderator of Inflation

It should be understood however that economies are not doomed to suffer inflation as an inevitable problem inextricably linked to an economic boom. One way to see this is by noting that a long run dynamic can be superimposed on this short run process. That long run dynamic is what is called economic growth.

Economic growth is described as a long run increase in living standards within an economy, and it is often visible in a long run positive growth trend in per capita income.

To keep it intuitive, think of economic growth as what removes the constraints that limit either the availability of resources, or the state of knowledge on how to transform these resources into valued production or both.

Immediately we see how crucially important this concept is. Now we are ready to answer the question posed by the title of this post. When does an economic expansion become overheating? In other words when should we be concerned about inflation resulting from an economy that is overheating - experiencing too much spending growth compared to the growth of its output?

Economic growth does not just happen by chance. What many growth researchers have found is that it takes a confluence of viable resources, appropriately designed incentives, and well matched economic, social and political institutions to drive this process.

Viable Resources

Not all resources are equal..., at least at any static point in time. A major role of education is to enhance the productive capability of labor, transforming it into some form of human capital, able to produce beyond just raw physical effort on the job.

Having highly skilled workers is great, but these workers also need to have the right tools that align with their upgraded training. A major role of spending on researc