January - 2019

SOUND ECONOMIC AND PUBLIC POLICY (SEPP) CONSULTING

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The Government Shutdown and its Cost

The Government Shutdown and its Cost

So the numbers are now out from the CBO about the cost of the longest government shutdown in US history. The five week shutdown cost us $11 billion, of which it is expected that $8 billion will be recovered, but $3 billion will be permanently lost. So the question that should be on the minds of everyone is, has this been worth it? Economic growth and stability have been linked to the presence of strong political and economic institutions, perhaps more importantly are the form

And the Expansion continues

And the Expansion continues

The December jobs report released this past Friday showed a US economy exhibiting remarkable resilience in spite of a number of political, economic and financial market upheavals that closed out the year. As expected the Trump administration has taken to twitter to call this news "Great" and to take credit for it. Credit indeed should go where it is due but how much should we really credit the current administration's policies for this outcome? There are usually confounding s

Inflation looms... no, a Recession is the problem... or wait

Inflation looms... no, a Recession is the problem... or wait

The end of 2018 witnessed very large volatility in stocks and formally put the economy in Bear Market territory - a collapse in stock prices by at least 20% from their prior peak - so the usual question kept cropping up, are we in danger of a recession? The reason though behind the Fed's decision earlier on in December to increase the benchmark interest rate was that of inflation concerns. Normally, unless we are dealing with supply side shocks, which do not seem to be anywhe